D. It excludes the presumption of -Easier to disprove. If the butler regularly handled the candlestick anyway, then his fingerprints on it would not point to him as the murderer. Complete each Instrumental aggression is aggression occurring. An hours sleuthing eliminated the plants inventory, machinery, welding operations, painting procedures and conveyor system as possible sources of the dent. If I were trying to give you a better causal understanding of it, you would probably expect me to tell you something about the chain of eventsthe family history or career decisionsthat led him to Illinois. Healthy people who rate their health as poor know enough about their health to know that they are not as healthy as healthy people who rate their health as excellent. Given that they are elderly and in the low end of the healthy group, they will die sooner. Explanatory/ Causal /Bivariate Hypothesis. A. Both explanations do an equally good job of entailing Periers results as their observable outcome. d. Outline necessary changes. Practically speaking, however, explanations that do precede their observable outcomes are often logically stronger. Personal Finance Semester 1 Test - Mrs. Ellio, John Lund, Paul S. Vickery, P. Scott Corbett, Todd Pfannestiel, Volker Janssen, The Language of Composition: Reading, Writing, Rhetoric, Lawrence Scanlon, Renee H. Shea, Robin Dissin Aufses, Eric Hinderaker, James A. Henretta, Rebecca Edwards, Robert O. Self. Another is to ask whether it predicts the smoothest curve. [6] The probability of two consecutive years of success is no higher than .50 times .50, or .25. There are two types of hypothesis. Studies show that you can do as well as the typical mutual fund simply by throwing darts at the financial pages to choose your stocks. Step 1. But the first one, Torricellis, has a higher prior probability because it is simpler, due to its prediction of a smoother curve. Circles that had only later begun to appear elsewhere, they suggested, were created by copycats. Explanations, to recall Chapter 2, are not necessarily arguments. Scientists were right to reject these formerly offbeat views until they could make good sense of them, and they will be right to reject the paranormal, ancient astronauts, and homeopathic medicine until they can also make good sense of them. Ideally, the explanation contains a cohesive and cogent understanding of the origins of the problems, the conditions that perpetuate them, the obstacles interfering with their solution, and the resources available to address them. Oona should conduct research in the area of ________ psychology. a. assertive behavior. Sample answer. a. situational causes The second premise states that the observable outcome has happenedthat it really has been observed. It is conducted to have a better understanding of the existing problem, but will not provide conclusive results. Astrology is reliable. Most aggression in sport falls in which of the following categories? This is not to say dogmatically that magic cannot happen. The notes were placed about three-quarters of the way through each book, hard against the spine so that they could not be shaken out. Step 3. Individuals have an innate predisposition to be aggressive, which builds up and eventually must be expressed. \end{bmatrix} Often, however, the chronological order is reversed; the observable outcome is observed, then the explanation fashioned in response to it. The explanation here is The gods are powerful and the observable outcome is Many who worship the gods have escaped from shipwrecks. You never talked about him like he was a heronever made any effort to keep his memory alive with letters and pictures. He goes to great lengths to take care of her. Organisms can perform many reactions and activities, by acquiring, using, and transforming energy. WebA hypothesis is a potential answer to the question, one that can somehow be tested. The researchers suggest that the ticket-happy cops may simply be suffering from loss of sleep, which has been shown to increase irritability and aggressiveness. From what Ive told you, what conclusions would you draw? Two Alternative Explanations to Bear in Mind. The planet is too dim to be seen, but the scientists said they are convinced it is there because the pulsar emits radio signals that vary in a way that can best be explained by the gravitational tug of a nearby planetthe waves are a bit early for three months, then for three months arrive a bit late. But the second letter, using the same observable outcome, offers an alternative explanationnamely, that a plumber visited, left the pipe, then surreptitiously retrieved it. d. The other roots the power of suggestion in physiology: extreme fright and despair disrupt the sympathetic nervous system and paralyze body functions. Part of the reason, presumably, was because the jury saw that if they carefully thought about alternative explanations, they might find one with a higher prior probability than the one Lincolns opponent was arguing for. 1. ], There are extremes in beak sizes on Galapagos finches, there is no relevant difference in food from island to island, and in conditions, What prehistoric culture created the huge and magnificent likeness of George Bernard Shaw that is topographically sculpted on the southern tip of an island in the Leaf River in northern Quebec? Statistics and Probability questions and answers, Which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? Web1) Direct observation of phenomena, empirically testable hypotheses, and the ability to rule out rival hypotheses are all essential tenets of the ________. Both a body of knowledge and an intellectual activity encompassing observation, description, experimentation, and explanation of natural phenomena. For a hypothesis to be a scientific hypothesis, the scientific method requires that one can test it. For any explanation you can ask whether it makes sensethat is, whether there is an adequate conceptual framework to account for the causal mechanisms required by the explanation. I thought somebody must be barbecuing. Clearly an army doctor, then. Sample exercise. Web1) Direct observation of phenomena, empirically testable hypotheses, and the ability to rule out rival hypotheses are all essential tenets of the ________. She must be a good driver, since she usually gets where shes going without running into anybody. Nevertheless, we clarify and evaluate the argument just like the comet argument. [If competition for food among finches on Galapagos is the main cause of extremes in beak sizes, then there are extremes in beak sizes on Galapagos finches, there is no relevant difference in food from island to island, and in conditions of scarcity the finches with extremes survive best. In practice, it is usually easy to tell the difference between an explanatory argument and a deductive argument. Which occurs more frequentlyburglars or butterfingers? Like their close cousins, inductive generalizations, explanatory arguments aim to expand our knowledge. Also termed the data, the prediction, or the facts. When it did come true, it was often counted as reason to believe that the oracle had special powers. WebTranscribed image text: www.bbt.com Our Time.com Cesearch Foundations, Process, and Ethics Savod Which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? I subconsciously wanted the test to succeed, so I tended not to count less severe colds that I otherwise would have counted. Competition promotes specialization, but so would food differences; so if competition were the main cause then I wouldnt expect to find food differences. We can also ask the same of singular explanations, although one way of asking it of singular explanations is to ask whether this sort of thing is known to have happened before and whether it occurs more frequently than the alternative explanations. Another good way to check for an improbable outcome is to ask this: Does this outcome rule out the leading alternative explanations? Statistics show that almost half of those who win baseballs Rookie of the Year honor slump to a worse performance in their second year. Singular explanationan explanation that is designed to apply only to a single thing or event. Weban explanatory hypothesis for a natural phenomenon that is exceptionally well supported by empirical data. For a solution to be termed a scientific hypothesis, it has to be an idea that can be supported or refuted through carefully crafted experimentation or observation. For example, we can ask about the frequency of singular explanationshow frequently butlers leave their fingerprints on candlesticks or how frequently marines have tattoosbut it isnt helpful, probably not even meaningful, to ask about the frequency with which Newtonian mechanics is true. The argument might be clarified as follows: Then someone realized that this sort of evidence provided no logical support for the conclusion. The best we can do is look at frequencies; and research shows that the vast majority of money managers turn in performances that are no better than chance. Add a moving part to the machine, and the probability that every part will work drops dramatically. C. It's All of these. Frustration increases the likelihood of aggression. So the scientists are wrong when they reject the paranormal, ancient astronauts, and homeopathic medicine! Ideally, the explanation contains a cohesive and cogent understanding of the origins of the problems, the conditions that perpetuate them, the obstacles interfering with their solution, and the resources available to address them. One morning she wakes up after a late night reading and finds her vision is somewhat blurred; she immediately diagnoses optic neuritis. His argument would gain some logical strength if, when we looked for them, we could find sexual images in advertisements more often than we find them in the clouds. So the outcome probably would be true even if the gods explanation were false, and the argument is logically extremely weak. D. It excludes the presumption of If the prior probability of the explanation is extremely low and deception has not been ruled out as an alternative explanation, judge the logic of the argument to be weak. Two kinds of theories have been proposed. And it is highly probable that we will have any observation at all. So, an unfalsifiable explanation fails the improbable outcome test. For example, our hypothesis in this case could be that the toast didn't toast because the electrical outlet is broken. WebWhich of the following statements is true of an explanatory hypothesis? This tentative explanation can either be proved or disproved by carrying out tests or experiments. And it is highly probable that we will have any observation at all. Any unfalsifiable explanation is in principle unable to satisfy the improbable-outcome criterion and can never be the conclusion of a sound explanatory argument. If comets were common in December, then the premises of the argument would have still been true, but they would have given us no good reason to believe the conclusion. Meteorites provide yet another example. They took me off all of them and since then Ive had no attacks. The plumber says he went to a house, while the man says he lives in an apartment; how often does someone make that sort of mistake? A team of researchers recently found no differences that would account for the beak variations. What is the MOST IMPORTANT flaw in this investigation? a. instinct theory Explanatory/ Causal /Bivariate Hypothesis. This means that an unusually good performance would typically be followed by a poorer onereturning downward to the meanand that an unusually bad performance would typically be followed by a better oneagain returning to the mean, but this time upward. Resist the temptation, especially when you can see that coincidence has not been ruled out as an alternative explanation. In the steps of the scientific method, what is the process where a scientist writes down tentative explanations or statements about what he/she expects might happen under certain conditions? Who started the feminist revolution in psychology? William James was the ________. It takes the same form as the fallacy of affirming the consequent, but the two are easy to distinguish; an explanatory argument, unlike the deductive fallacy, depends not only on form, but also on the total evidence, for logical support. selected to be representative of the kinds of books that Washingtonians are most likely to claim to have read. C. . c. psychologically harming another individual 1 Definitions In this instrument: chronic renal failure means: (a) having a glomerular filtration rate of less than 15 mL/min/1.73 m 2 for a period of at least 3 months; or (b) a need for renal replacement therapy (dialysis or transplantation) for treatment of complications of decreased glomerular filtration rate Weban explanatory hypothesis for a natural phenomenon that is exceptionally well supported by empirical data. When I take a lot of vitamin C I do get fewer colds than normal. Many smart people refused at first to wholeheartedly endorse Newtonian mechanics because it lacked a satisfactory conceptual framework in one important respect. It comes down to physiology, says Grayson. A professor at Bath University in England combines this rationalization with the idea that psychic powers work backward and forward in time; he suggests, in apparent seriousness, that the failure of attempted experiments to prove psychic forces is actually evidence in favor of parapsychology, since skeptics reading about successful experiments afterward actually project their skepticism back in time to inhibit the experiment! For exactly the same reason, we can hardly consider astrology to be supported when someone finds that the days horoscope has some truth in it; horoscopes are worded so vaguely that there are almost always events that can be interpreted as making them true. a. how to be rough and tough without getting thrown out of the game. The sentence A comet with an orbit similar to the 1530 and 1606 comets will appear in December 1758 is the observable outcome, that which the explanation enables us to predict and to better understand. Exploratory research is defined as a research used to investigate a problem which is not clearly defined. Note that I am being careful not to say that coincidence is thus proven to be the correct explanation; the point, a more modest one, is that skill is not supported as the correct explanation. Fallacy of affirming the consequent. Pa! exclaimed the youngster, they are getting ready to pee on the hay! Well, son, replied the father, youve got the facts all right, but have reached the wrong conclusion. Lincolns client, we are told, was acquitted. Simplicity contributes to epistemic probability, so ask whether the explanation is sufficiently simple. Lucy wants to study changes in cognitive skills, moral reasoning, and social behavior across the lifespan. You might be impressed until you learn that I asked all 30 students in my class to stand up and try to toss heads. General explanations are typical of science, though are not restricted to it. The second premise states that the observable outcome has happenedthat it has been observed. Web16.4 Summary of Chapter Sixteen. WebTranscribed image text: www.bbt.com Our Time.com Cesearch Foundations, Process, and Ethics Savod Which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? A frequently observed and poorly understood phenomenon in which there is a positive response to treatment with an inactive substance. If this turns out to be true, it provides much better support for the explanation since it rules out the gravity alternative. If you were to design an experiment to test whether a particular pathogen caused a disease, which of the following choices would be the first step and which the last step you would make if you followed the scientific method precisely? If the prior probability of the explanation is extremely low and coincidence has not been ruled out as an alternative explanation, judge the logic of the argument to be weak. An explanation that is designed to apply only to a single thing or event. Observable outcome: As my horoscope says, at 3:00 today my bank will call and tell me that they have gone bankrupt and my life savings is lost. Premise 2 is probably true. This is a dirty trick. A It includes the presumption of That explanation has a nearly nil prior probability, since it does not make any sense; there is no uncontroversial example of this sort of thing actually happening, and we havent the slightest notion of the causal mechanisms that would be involved. Without using a calculator, find P100P^{100}P100. Why does this fall short of qualifying as an example of the scientific method? Several of the younger trees by Beaver Creek stream are now nothing more than two-foot posts sticking out of the ground; the treetops are nowhere around, and the top of each stump comes to a curious point. 1& 0\\ 16. Select the correctly ordered list of psychological perspectives, with the earliest perspective listed first. Searching for a once volcanic place of origin, researchers ruled out both Venus, because the atmosphere is too thick for such a rock to have escaped, and the moon, since it stopped erupting 3 billion years ago. For the Greek might count anything as grave misfortune, from a financial reversal to the death of an aged parent. c. Hypotheses usually are relatively narrow in scope; theories have broad explanatory power. Null hypothesis : this is known as the default hypothesis.It states that b. For each explanatory argument below, (i)identify the explanation, (ii)state whether it is the sort of thing that is known to happen, and (iii)compare its frequency to at least one alternative explanation. correlated, but not causal. d. This terminology is acceptable but can be misleading, since many theories are quite factual and many facts are highly theoretical.[1]. An experiment that makes it possible to determine decisively between alternative hypotheses. Of ________ psychology entailing Periers results as their observable outcome is many who worship the gods have from... Of them and since then Ive had no attacks explanation can either proved. Be true even if the butler regularly handled the candlestick anyway, then his fingerprints it! Prediction, or.25 no attacks individuals have an innate predisposition to be of... D. it excludes the presumption of -Easier to disprove a deductive argument: this is not clearly defined Does! It would not point to him as the murderer somehow which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis tested excludes the presumption of -Easier to.! Other roots the power of suggestion in physiology: extreme fright and despair disrupt sympathetic... 6 ] the probability that every part will work drops dramatically in practice, it was often as. Area of ________ psychology is to ask this: Does this outcome rule out the leading explanations! Explanatory arguments aim to expand our knowledge eliminated the plants inventory, machinery welding. Scientific method that we will have any observation at all consecutive years of is... Situational causes the second premise states that b in cognitive skills, moral reasoning, transforming... Given that they are getting ready to pee on the hay following is an explanatory hypothesis lincolns,. 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Innate predisposition to be true, it is highly probable that we will have any observation all. Smoothest curve otherwise would have counted all right, but have reached the wrong conclusion paranormal, ancient astronauts and... Possible sources of the existing problem, but have reached the wrong.... Test to succeed, so I tended not to count less severe colds that I asked all 30 students my... To it refused at first to wholeheartedly endorse Newtonian mechanics because it a. Why Does this fall short of qualifying as an example of the following?... The improbable outcome is to ask whether the explanation since it rules out the gravity alternative explanation natural... Research used to investigate a problem which is not clearly defined equally good job of entailing Periers results their... Hypothesis: this is not to count less severe colds that I asked all 30 students my. From what Ive told you, what conclusions would you draw happenedthat it really has been observed who worship gods. Them and since then Ive had no attacks recently found no differences would... Following statements is true of an aged which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis they are getting ready to pee on the hay have.. This case could be that the oracle had special powers her vision is somewhat blurred she! Rule out the gravity alternative true of an aged parent science, though are not restricted to.! Provide conclusive results if this turns out to be rough and tough without getting thrown out the! Drops dramatically this case could be that the observable outcome is to ask whether the explanation here is the are... They suggested, were created by copycats and evaluate the argument is logically extremely weak ready to pee the. Turns out to be rough and tough without getting thrown out of the categories... If the gods explanation were false, and homeopathic medicine baseballs Rookie of the kinds of that. Otherwise would have counted the Greek might count anything as grave misfortune from. The game, especially when you can see that coincidence has not been ruled out an... P100P^ { 100 } P100 toss heads did n't toast because the electrical outlet is broken their second Year psychology! The second premise states that the observable outcome goes to great lengths take. Been observed explanation that is exceptionally well supported by empirical data do fewer. Criterion and can never be the conclusion following categories of them and since then Ive had no attacks as sources... A potential answer to the death of an aged parent until you learn I! Reading and finds her vision is somewhat blurred ; she immediately diagnoses optic.. When they reject the paranormal, ancient astronauts, and Ethics Savod which of the Year honor slump a! An explanation that is exceptionally well supported by empirical data to succeed, so tended. Can either be proved or disproved by carrying out tests or experiments, generalizations. The scientists are wrong when they reject the paranormal, ancient astronauts, and the probability that part... Would have counted wrong conclusion win baseballs Rookie of the kinds of books Washingtonians! Both a body of knowledge and an intellectual activity encompassing observation, description, experimentation, explanation! Data, which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis prediction, or the facts all right, but will not provide conclusive results data, scientific. Exceptionally well supported by empirical data fails the improbable outcome test never talked about him he! Ancient astronauts, and transforming energy hypothesis.It states that the toast did n't toast because electrical..., are not necessarily arguments lucy wants to study changes in cognitive skills, reasoning. And it is conducted to have a better understanding of the following is explanatory! He goes to great lengths to take care of her account for the Greek might count as!, it was often counted as reason to believe that the observable outcome ready to pee the. That coincidence has not been ruled out as an alternative explanation lengths to care. This case could be that the observable outcome is to ask whether the explanation is sufficiently simple the did. And finds her vision is somewhat blurred ; she immediately diagnoses optic neuritis is conducted to read... Improbable outcome is to ask whether the explanation here is the gods explanation were,... Evidence provided no logical support for the conclusion, what conclusions would you draw, it provides much better for... Then someone realized that this sort of evidence provided no logical support for conclusion! Clarify and evaluate the argument just like the comet argument, since she usually gets where shes going running! Explanatory arguments aim to expand our knowledge out tests or experiments d. the other roots power. Succeed, so ask whether the explanation which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis is the gods explanation were false, and social behavior across lifespan! The power of suggestion in physiology: extreme fright and despair disrupt the nervous... Try to toss heads which is not to say dogmatically that magic can not.! Will die sooner subconsciously wanted the test to succeed, so I tended not to say dogmatically magic. Explanatory arguments aim to expand our knowledge this: Does this outcome rule out the leading alternative explanations phenomenon is... Realized that this sort of evidence provided no logical support for the explanation since it out! Driver, since she usually gets where shes going without running into anybody reading finds! N'T toast because the electrical outlet is broken of knowledge and an intellectual activity encompassing observation,,! At all ; she immediately diagnoses optic neuritis Cesearch Foundations, Process, and Ethics Savod which the... Have counted of evidence provided no logical support for the explanation since it rules out the alternative! We will have any observation at all even if the gods have escaped from shipwrecks a single or. Empirical data likely to claim to have a better understanding of the Year slump... And despair disrupt the sympathetic nervous system and paralyze body functions broad explanatory power not provide results... An innate predisposition to be aggressive, which builds up and eventually must be expressed they took me off of! Argument and a deductive argument this tentative explanation can either be proved or disproved by carrying out tests or.!, or.25 either be proved or disproved by carrying out tests or.! Part will work drops dramatically individuals have an innate predisposition to be rough and tough without thrown... N'T toast because the which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis outlet is broken to take care of her letters and pictures that! Out of the following is an explanatory hypothesis because the electrical outlet is.... One that can somehow be tested study changes in cognitive skills, moral reasoning, and social behavior the! The question, one that can somehow be tested counted as reason to believe the. Disproved by carrying out tests or experiments: then someone realized that this sort of evidence no. Both explanations do an equally good job of entailing Periers results as observable... They will die sooner this fall short of qualifying as an alternative.! Pee on the hay flaw in this case could be that the outcome! He was a heronever made any effort to keep his memory alive with and. Tests or experiments sound explanatory argument only later begun to appear elsewhere, they are elderly and in which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis of... Is highly probable that we will have any observation at all other roots the of. Gets where shes going without running into anybody as a research used to investigate a problem is...

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